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Jim Rogers and a Harvard Business School
Student Dmitry Alimov
"Jim Rogers on Russia"
Below is a humorous email exchange between Jim Rogers and a
Harvard Business School Russian Student Dmitry Alimov
Also see the original post of
Jim Rogers on Russia as well
as comments from Russian readers (if you read Russian).
----- Original Message -----
From:
Dmitry Alimov
To:
dalimov@mba2004.hbs.edu
Sent: Friday, September 12, 2003 11:28 PM
Subject: Conversation with Jim Rogers - HILARIOUS
Jim Rogers, a famous international investor and writer
attended HBS this Wednesday. In his speech, he badmouthed Russia (in his usual
style) and quoted several "facts" that were completely bogus. As you would
expect, I could not let him get away with lying about our country and publicly
disputed his factual claims. He basically told me I was a moron and left. In
response, I sent an email to him with facts and references disputing his claims
(sending a copy to my HBS classmates). What ensued is quite amazing - read
attached emails. Start with the first email and read from the end (my original
email), then read his response and finally my rebuttal in the second email. This
will be worth your time I promise. This has already been circulated all over HBS,
several other universities and in the investment community in New York. Since
this is already in public domain, feel free to forward on.
Dima
__________________________________________________
Dear Mr. Rogers: I am the “lad” who disputed your factual claims with regard to
Russia today. First of all, I would like to thank you for speaking to us at the
Harvard Business School. I think I speak for my fellow HBS students when I say
that we enjoyed your original views and interesting stories today. However, I
must address the unfortunate reality that your facts about Russia are plain
wrong. You made three principal inaccurate claims today - I will deal with all
of them in sequence.
Claim #1. People are leaving Russia
Wrong. In fact, according to Financial Times, your
favorite newspaper, Russia turns out to be the second largest recipient of
immigrants after the US (see attached FT article). Oops. While it is true that
Russia’s population is declining but the reasons for that have nothing to do
with people leaving the country, it is things like low birth rate (only 1.2 per
woman), which is an issue that confronts many European states.
Claim #2. Russia’s production of oil is declining, oil
companies do not reinvest in production
Wrong and wrong. Russian oil production has increased for
the fifth year in a row (see attached Reuters article), and Russian oil majors
are reinvesting in production (many of them have US GAAP accounts audited by Big
Four firms you could easily have access to if you chose to look).
Claim #3. Investors are leaving Russia
Wrong again. Equity indexes (US Dollar denominated) are
trading around their all time highs (see attached Barrons article), Russian bond
yields are at historical lows. As an experienced investor, surely you will
recognize these as pretty convincing signs of investor confidence.
Overall state of the economy
Finally, I would like to quote World Bank’s recent report
on Russia: “The Russian Federation has made remarkable progress in tackling
crisis and moving towards sustainable development between 1999 and 2002. With a
much more stable political environment, the government has been able to build on
experience gained in the 1990s and implement a sound reform agenda, in addition
to maintaining macro-economic stability. Since 1999, assisted by high commodity
prices, the economy has recorded strong growth, business confidence has revived,
and poverty has declined. Russia’s sovereign credit rating has improved,
although it has yet to reach investment grade. The speed and extent of recovery
has taken most observers by surprise. Between early 1999 and end 2001, GDP grew
by 21 percent, inflation fell from 86 percent to 18 percent, the fiscal
situation turned around from a deficit of 5 percent of GDP to a surplus of 3
percent of GDP, and barter and arrears largely disappeared.”
Source:
http://www.worldbank.org.ru GDP growth
of 21%? Hardly a picture of total collapse, don’t you think?
Conclusion I believe the facts speak for
themselves. I have no time or desire to try to convince you to invest in Russia.
However, I do kindly ask you to abstain from spreading inaccurate information.
You are a public figure and many people including future leaders at Harvard
Business School listen to you; it would be very unfortunate if they were misled
by your inaccurate statements. Finally, if nothing else, it is not good for
your own public image.
Kind regards,
Dmitry Alimov, CFA MBA Class of 2004
Harvard | Business | School
dalimov@mba2004.hbs.edu
Ph 617.491.7332
P.S. I took the liberty of sending a copy of this email to
my fellow students so that we can set the record straight.
____________________________________________________
Thank you for coming and for writing.
I rarely suffer fools gladly and even more rarely bother
with chauvinistic know nothings, but since you sent this ludicrous canard:
[1] My goodness. Not only do you have no idea about
what you are speaking, we now know you cannot read. The “immigration study” you
mention was a bunch of estimates for the years 1970 to 1995. What the hell does
that have to do with Russia in the past 8 years? Many were forced to go into
Russia from the Soviet Republics under the Communists, but that was hardly free
immigration as in the other countries. Even if people were going into Russia in
the early 1990s, they were Russians being forced to leave the old USSR republics
as the USSR dissolved in the early 1990s and those Russians fled back into
Russia.
You have demonstrated you cannot read nor analyze nor have
any concept of what is happening in Russia today, but do you not at least know a
little Russian history?
[2] Oh my. You really should have kept your mouth
shut and stopped long ago. This is not from “Reuters”. It is from the Russian
government – the same group which claims to have had a balance of trade surplus
for the last 9 years. The same group of bureaucrats and charlatans who became a
laughing stock with their “facts” under the USSR. The same who say that the
Russian balance of trade in that period has been among the largest in the world.
I did not think even B school students fell for that claptrap any more. But then
you are the one who says the ruble is a good buy and that “it is a strong
currency”. I suggest you check your facts on what has happened to the ruble in
those 9 years when Russia “had the strongest balance of trade surplus in the
world”. And that was a period when huge sums were also flowing in from the World
Bank, IMF, etc, etc. “Inflows from the strongest balance of trade in the world
and billions from the World Bank, etc” yet the currency kept declining. I and
most others find that extremely strange.
Somehow or another the currency kept falling since most of
us realized the same old bureaucrats were spewing out the same old garbage. I
guess you were buying rubles all that time. No wonder you are in school rather
than making it in the real world. You must have gone broke buying all those
rubles.
And if Russian oil production is really up so much, why is
the price of oil still so high? So you are indeed a gullible lad, but
fortunately the market knows a lot more than you and your wailing into the wind.
You might read the section of my book about Russia’s
reported figures – especially the trade figures. Or get some one to read it to
you and explain it to you.
I know you said you have driven across Russia from the
Pacific to Europe, but I’d like to know your route and which border crossings
you used and who you found out there counting all this stuff.
[3] You really should have kept your mouth shut,
but since you opened it: What balderdash. Now we know you have no understanding
of markets in addition to being unable to read or comprehend. The Russian
“market” is tiny and is insignificant compared to GNP so it is meaningless. Even
your article points out that the few big hydrocarbon companies account for 70%
of the stock market. [a] The price of oil more than doubled in the period the
article discusses and [b] those stocks went up because of that and because of
the manipulation by the oligarchs. Perhaps you did not notice your article
mentioned the “murky” dealings in Russia?
I hardly consider 2 mutual funds and 4 or 5 manipulated
oil stocks “as pretty convincing signs of investor confidence”.
But if you really believe all this codswallop, why are you
in business school? Why aren’t you there making your fortune?
I presume you are long the Russian stock market?
For what it is worth, I was short the ruble and the
Russian market in the summer of 1998 and back in the earlier bubble in the mid
1990s when Russia and its bureaucrats were going on and on with the same
absurdity. Go back and look up what happened both times. Or perhaps you were
long then too and got wiped out which is why you had to go to b school.
[4] “Overall state of the economy”: Now we are
getting really embarrassed for you! The World Bank also praised Russia in 1998
just before the last collapse and in the mid 1990s just in time for that
collapse. They also wrote in rapturous terms about all the Asia Tigers in mid
1997 just in time for the Asian Crisis [I was short Hong Kong back then too
right into the World Bank’s rapture.] And the World Bank could not give
Argentina enough money in the summer and fall of 2001 because of “its progress”
when I was getting all my money out. [All this is very much on the public record
so you do not need to fret about my image.]
Need I go on? No one has ever stayed solvent much less
made money listening to the World Bank [except business school professors who
“consult” for them].
Oh dear, you get your information from the Russian
government and the World Bank!? Are you mad? I know you say you have driven
across Russia, but who do you really think is out there in those 11 time zones
and tens of thousands on kilometers of Russia collecting all this “reliable
data”?
And thanks for your advice about my analysis, facts and my
“public image”. If you had done your homework, you’d know the public was and is
extremely aware that I had shorted the ruble in 1998 and back in the mid 1990s
[when I guess you were long]. It was the same kind if misinformation back then
too that gullible souls like you swallowed.
And the public is extremely aware of my record of
investing in many markets all over the world for many years. You might read John
Train’s Money Masters of Our Time or one of several other books. I do not
worry about it, but you should worry about yours.
But as for public image and inaccurate statements, you
have demonstrated quite publicly and vocally that you can neither read nor
comprehend what you read nor can you analyze anything in front of you and that
you fall for anything someone tells you and that you have absolutely no
knowledge of even recent Russian history. I was terribly embarrassed for you
when you stood there babbling on in front of the others about the strong ruble –
a currency which has been nothing but a catastrophe for a decade [despite your
painfully absurd statements], but now you have shouted your hopelessness from
the roof tops for all to see.
I hope your classmates will pull you aside and pass on
this word of advice: It is better to remain silent and have people wonder if you
are an idiot rather than to open your mouth and prove to everyone in sight that
you are an idiot beyond all doubt. And one should never, ever go shouting from
the rooftops when one is a total idiot because then the entire school knows it.
_____________________________________________________
Mr. Rogers:
I see that you prefer the language of personal insults instead of informed
polite discussion. Well, this is your choice and I hope this is not consistent
with your sense of style – you are a successful individual (as you mentioned
many times) and it would be a shame to tarnish that with this sort of attitude.
Also, apologies for getting you a little riled, I didn’t mean to, nor did I
expect you to. I am enjoying the discussion and would like to just rebut some of
your remarks.
Thank you for coming and for writing. I rarely suffer fools gladly and even more
rarely bother with chauvinistic know nothings, but since you sent this ludicrous
canard:
[1] [immigration] My goodness. Not only do you have
no idea about what you are speaking, we now know you cannot read. The
“immigration study” you mention was a bunch of estimates for the years 1970 to
1995. What the hell does that have to do with Russia in the past 8 years? Many
were forced to go into Russia from the Soviet Republics under the Communists,
but that was hardly free immigration as in the other countries. Even if people
were going into Russia in the early 1990s, they were Russians being forced to
leave the old USSR republics as the USSR dissolved in the early 1990s and those
Russians fled back into Russia.
You have demonstrated you cannot read nor analyze nor have any concept of what
is happening in Russia today, but do you not at least know a little Russian
history?
For your viewing pleasure, below are the actual numbers of net migration
(immigration less emigration) through 2001. As you can see, there is a net
inflow in every single year for the past two decades. This does not even include
an estimated 1-1.5 million of illegal immigrants to Russia.
Net Migration and Natural Increase in Russia, 1980–2001
(Abridged)
Source: State Committee of the
Russian Federation on Statistics, Goskomstat Rossii
As you correctly point out, much of the immigration comes from the states of the
former Soviet Union (although a very large part of the immigrants are Ukrainians
and other CIS nationals). However, the fact remains that before and after 1995,
immigration to Russia far exceeded emigration from Russia, which is the opposite
of your original claim.
[2] [oil production] Oh my. You really should have
kept your mouth shut and stopped long ago. This is not from “Reuters”. It is
from the Russian government – the same group which claims to have had a balance
of trade surplus for the last 9 years. The same group of bureaucrats and
charlatans who
The quote below is taken directly from US Department of Energy website (I hope
you at least believe your own government):
“A turnaround in Russian oil output began in 1999, which many analysts have
attributed to rising world oil prices during this period (oil prices tripled
between January 1999 and September 2000), as well as a number of after-effects
of the 1998 financial crisis and subsequent devaluation of the ruble in August.
Today, Russian oil fields are maintained using modern technologies from around
the world, and many of the old command economy institutions have been
streamlined. The rebound in Russian oil production has continued since 1999,
resulting in 2002 total liquids production of 7.65 million bbl/d (7.4 million
bbl/d of which was crude oil)--a 26% increase over the 1998 level. Accordingly,
Russia is now the world’s second largest crude oil producer behind only Saudi
Arabia.
(Abridged)
Source:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/russia.html#oil
Or do you think the US government is also lying?
became a laughing stock with their “facts” under the USSR. The same who say that
the Russian balance of trade in that period has been among the largest in the
world. I did not think even B school students fell for that claptrap any more.
I don’t think my fellow students deserve this condescending treatment. You
should also know that my other Russian speaking HBS classmates were appalled by
your comments in and after class. In addition to misstating the facts, you also
characterized the country in an offensive manner. We are all rational people and
are prepared to discuss the Russian economy and culture on merits (clearly,
there are many negative things, particularly in the recent past) but it’s a very
different matter when someone starts insulting a nation.
But then you are the one who says the ruble is a good buy and that “it is a
strong currency”.
This is not quite the statement I made, but nice try at remembering. What I said
was that this year, Russian currency appreciated and I stand by my statement.
From 31.7 rubles/US$ at the end of 2002 it appreciated to 30.7 rubles/US$ now. I
did not say it
is a strong currency and I certainly don’t think that any currency is a good
investment given that currencies are not interest bearing.
I suggest you check your facts on what has happened to the ruble in those 9
years when Russia “had the strongest balance of trade surplus in the world”. And
that was a period when huge sums were also flowing in from the World Bank, IMF,
etc, etc. “Inflows from the strongest balance of trade in the world and billions
from the World Bank, etc” yet the currency kept declining. I and most others
find that extremely strange. Somehow or another the currency kept falling since
most of us realized the same old bureaucrats were spewing out the same old
garbage. I guess you were buying rubles all that time. No wonder you are in
school rather than making it in the real world. You must have gone broke buying
all those rubles.
And if Russian oil production is really up so much, why is the price of oil
still so high? So you are indeed a gullible lad, but fortunately the market
knows a lot more than you and your wailing into the wind.
I find it amusing that you would ask this question. Surely you know that market
prices are determined by many factors including demand (which, as you correctly
pointed out in your speech, is on a secular upward trend), supply by other
players (think Latin American and Middle East supply problems). Russia is one of
the global energy suppliers and certainly cannot by itself control world energy
prices. Surely you must know this?
You might read the section of my book about Russia’s reported figures –
especially the trade figures. Or get some one to read it to you and explain it
to you. I know you said you have driven across Russia from the Pacific to
Europe, but I’d like to know your route and which border crossings you used and
who you found out there counting all this stuff.
[3] You really should have kept your mouth shut, but since you opened it: What
balderdash. Now we know you have no understanding of markets in addition to
being unable to read or comprehend. The Russian “market” is tiny and is
insignificant compared to GNP so it is meaningless. Even your article points out
that the few big hydrocarbon companies account for 70% of the stock market. [a]
The price of oil more than doubled in the period the article discusses and [b]
those stocks went up because of that and because of the manipulation by the
oligarchs. Perhaps you did not notice your article mentioned the “murky”
dealings in Russia?
I hardly consider 2 mutual funds and 4 or 5 manipulated oil stocks “as pretty
convincing signs of investor confidence”.
If the stock and bond
market three year rally is not sufficient evidence for you, what about the fact
that scores of major Western companies made significant capital commitments to
Russia in the past few years? Here is just a sample of recent investments:
Pepsi $1 bn
Coca Cola $750 mln
Metro (Germany) €1 bn
United Technologies Corp. $400 mln
Mars LLC $500 mln
Procter & Gamble $150 mln
Boeing $1.3 bn
ExxonMobil $1.4 bn
BP $3 bn
If this is not a reliable sign of investor confidence, I don’t know what is. But
you probably think these companies are lying, too? Or are they also being
manipulated by evil oligarchs?
But if you really believe all this codswallop, why are you in business school?
Why aren’t you there making your fortune?
Let me know if you desire to see my bank statements and resume, I’ll email them
to you. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised, maybe even compare them to yours
when you were my tender age, for a real awakening. Maybe we can do the same when
I am your age now, and we can revisit this cute discussion.
Rest assured, I certainly plan on continuing my career in Russia because I love
the place, I am good at what I do and I will have a positive impact on the
country. Surely, there are challenges and problems (name a place in the world
that does not have a set of problems to deal with) but the opportunities are
amazing. I find it extremely satisfying to be able to effect real change in the
largest country in the world.
I presume you are long the Russian stock market? That’s
correct.
For what it is worth, I was short the ruble and the Russian market in the summer
of 1998 and back in the earlier bubble in the mid 1990s when Russia and its
bureaucrats were going on and on with the same absurdity. Go back and look up
what happened both times. Or perhaps you were long then too and got wiped out
which is why you had to go to b school.
[4] “Overall state of the economy”: Now we are getting really embarrassed for
you! The World Bank also praised Russia in 1998 just before the last collapse
and in the mid 1990s just in time for that collapse. They also wrote in
rapturous terms about all the Asia Tigers in mid 1997 just in time for the Asian
Crisis [I was short Hong Kong back then too right into the World Bank’s
rapture.] And the World Bank could not give Argentina enough money in the summer
and fall of 2001 because of “its progress” when I was getting all my money out.
[All this is very much on the public record so you do not need to fret about my
image.]
While one may or may not agree with the World Bank’s adjectives and
characterizations, there are objective facts and figures that speak for
themselves. Do you think that 21% real GDP growth is a sign of total collapse of
the economy or do you think that the government and international finance
organizations are lying about the figures?
Need I go on? No one has ever stayed solvent much less made money listening to
the World Bank [except business school professors who “consult” for them]. Oh
dear, you get your information from the Russian government and the World Bank!?
Are you mad? I know you say you have driven across Russia, but who do you really
think is out there in those 11 time zones and tens of thousands on kilometers of
Russia collecting all this “reliable data”?
And thanks for your advice about my analysis, facts and my “public image”. If
you had done your homework, you’d know the public was and is extremely aware
that I had shorted the ruble in 1998 and back in the mid 1990s [when I guess you
were long]. It was the same kind if misinformation back then too that gullible
souls like you swallowed.
Every “babushka” shorted ruble during that time period; it was a highly
inflationary currency.
And the public is extremely aware of my record of investing in many markets all
over the world for many years. You might read John Train’s Money Masters of
Our Time or one of several other books. I do not worry about it, but you
should worry about yours.
But as for public image and inaccurate statements, you have demonstrated quite
publicly and vocally that you can neither read nor comprehend what you read nor
can you analyze anything in front of you and that you fall for anything someone
tells you and that you have absolutely no knowledge of even recent Russian
history. I was terribly embarrassed for you when you stood there babbling on in
front of the others about the strong ruble – a currency which has been nothing
but a catastrophe for a decade [despite your painfully absurd statements], but
now you have shouted your hopelessness from the roof tops for all to see.
I hope your classmates will pull you aside and pass on this word of advice: It
is better to remain silent and have people wonder if you are an idiot rather
than to open your mouth and prove to everyone in sight that you are an idiot
beyond all doubt. And one should never, ever go shouting from the rooftops when
one is a total idiot because then the entire school knows it.
I will leave it up to my classmates to make characterizations in this case.
Again, I will not dignify your insulting comments with a response. If you are
interested in what impression your email made on my classmates, please read this
sample email - one of many similar emails I received today:
“Dmitry, I was shocked by the letter that Jim wrote
you. I am sorry that you had to read that. It was totally ridiculous. I thought
you wrote him a respectful and well argued letter and for some reason he decided
to tear into you. I am not sure who is on the right side of the facts, but I do
know that I talked to the top guy at Morgan Stanley Private Client last week and
he said that Russia is one of their top picks going forward. All the best,
John”(name is changed for privacy reasons)
Respectfully yours,
Dmitry Alimov, CFA MBA Class of 2004
Harvard | Business | School
dalimov@mba2004.hbs.edu
Ph 617.491.7332
Harvard Business Student and Former Soros Exec Square Off in Email
Exchange
By Susan L. Barreto, Senior Reporter
Tuesday, October 14, 2003
BOSTON (HedgeWorld.com)—When Russia’s positive Moody’s rating granting
investment grade status made headlines last week, one Harvard Business Student
undoubtedly was smiling.
This is because for the last month Dmitry Alimov has been reeling from a series
of email exchanges sparked by a speech given by world-renowned investor Jim
Rogers that Mr. Alimov believes falsely cast a negative light on Russia’s
economic prospects.
Although the student’s email was intended to open up a scholarly debate over the
future of Russia’s economy, the response from Mr. Rogers was a litany of
disparaging remarks questioning Mr. Alimov’s intelligence and wisdom in
believing statistics provided by the Russian government, the International
Monetary Fund and World Bank.
Unfortunately, the email also was forwarded to Mr. Alimov’s classmates, along
with Mr. Rogers’ response.
Mr. Rogers wrote: “I was terribly embarrassed for you when you stood there
babbling on and on in front of the others about the strong ruble—a currency
which has been nothing but a catastrophe for a decade (despite your painfully
absurd statements), but now you have shouted your hopelessness from the roof
tops for all to see.”
Respected as an authority on international investing, Mr. Rogers has written
books on his travels around the world but is known mainly for co-founding the
Quantum fund with George Soros in the 1970s Previous HedgeWorld Story.
Mr. Rogers, who has been hailed by Time Magazine as the Indiana Jones of
finance, continues to travel and was on his way to Europe and unavailable for an
interview via email or over the phone for this story. Mr. Rogers also holds a
number of speaking engagements each year and is a regularly sought out for his
market commentary.
Some of his most recent comments on Russia were unfounded, according to Mr.
Alimov, who began questioning Mr. Rogers following the investment guru’s speech
at Harvard last month.
“I have no idea why he would write something like that,” Mr. Alimov said. “In
addition to getting the facts wrong, he lost any kind of decency in his
language.”
Only Mr. Rogers knows what prompted him to tell the student, “It is better to
remain silent and have people wonder if you are an idiot, rather than to open
your mouth and prove to everyone you are an idiot beyond all doubt.”
In a follow-up email, Mr. Alimov apologized for upsetting Mr. Rogers and
continued to rebut the touted investment expert’s remarks. He included charts on
Russian immigration and figures on Russian oil output, in addition to citing a
number of recent investments in Russia by large corporations such as Pepsi and
Coca Cola.
In his response, Mr. Rogers was quick to point out that he shorted the Russian
ruble in 1998 and was short the Russian market in the mid-1990s, when Russia and
“its bureaucrats were going on and on with the same absurdity.” The Harvard
Business School newspaper, The Harbus, also has gotten in the act, publishing a
spoof email exchange between the Dalai Lama and Mr. Rogers. After a string of
insults, including referring to the Dalai Lama as “cue ball,” Mr. Rogers
emphatically tells the holy man that the lesson of showing compassion to one’s
adversaries didn’t come from Buddha but was another lie from the Russian
government, signing the letter, “Short Buddhism.”
All this attention has done little to diminish Mr. Alimov’s prospects for Russia
and has made him a “virtual” celebrity. He’s received emails from all over,
including one from an official at Renaissance Capital, one of Russia’s leading
investment banks. It reads, “Do you realize that your struggle with Jim Rogers
has made you famous? I must have received the e-mail from 20 different people.”
In another year or so, after finishing up his MBA, Mr. Alimov plans to return to
Moscow. Before starting Harvard Business School, he was on the executive
committee of Gazprom Media, which according to Mr. Alimov, is Russia’s largest
media group with interests in television, radio, print and other media. He was
responsible for two national television networks and several FM radio stations.
From New York Magazine
REPLY TO ALL, WITH HISTORY
Issue of 2003-09-29
Posted 2003-09-22
Jim Rogers, the so-called Indiana Jones of finance, is among those businessmen
who, though not exactly hard-knocks graduates (Rogers attended Yale and Oxford),
feel that the important lessons for achieving success are more apt to be gleaned
from, say, a motorcycle ride across Siberia (Rogers holds two Guinness World
Records for travelling around the globe) than from any formal schooling, least
of all an M.B.A. program. Nonetheless, Rogers, like many moguls, is a happy
participant in the B-school lecture circuit, on which C.E.O.s, studio
executives, and authors get paid essentially to recount their own achievements,
and perhaps to promote their latest projects—in Rogers’s case, a new book,
“Adventure Capitalist.”
It was during one such appearance, at Harvard Business School the other day,
that Rogers, wearing his usual bow tie and employing his Alabama drawl, first
encountered Dmitry Alimov, and set off a chain of correspondence that future
students would do well to examine. It is a case study in making a name for
oneself, or making a fool of oneself—depending on your point of view. Dmitry,
who is twenty-nine, is a native of Russia and a former employee of Gazprom, the
Russian conglomerate. Like Rogers, he is an inveterate international traveller;
unlike Rogers, he dresses the part of a post-Soviet European (white jeans, big
collars, “Armani-type stuff”), and has chosen to enroll in business school.
(He’s HBS ’04.) Dmitry is also the type of business student who raises his hand
a lot, as he did when Rogers hammered on one of his favorite themes—that Russia,
though full of adventure, is devoid of real capital (“It’s a disaster spiralling
downward into a catastrophe”), and unworthy of investment.
Dmitry stood and aired his disagreements. Rogers more or less dismissed them. So
that night, Dmitry wrote Rogers an e-mail. “I am the ‘lad’ who disputed your
factual claims with regard to Russia today,” it began. He identified three
specific allegations that Rogers had made: people are leaving Russia (“wrong”);
Russia’s oil production is declining, and oil companies are not reinvesting
(“wrong and wrong”); investors are abandoning Russia (“wrong again”). “Many
people, including future leaders at Harvard Business School, listen to you,” he
concluded. “It would be very unfortunate if they were misled by your inaccurate
statements. Finally, if nothing else, it is not good for your own public image.”
He added a postscript: “I took the liberty of sending a copy of this e-mail to
my fellow students so that we can set the record straight.”
Round two came the following morning, in an e-mail reply from Rogers: “I rarely
suffer fools gladly, and even more rarely bother with chauvinistic
know-nothings, but since you sent this ludicrous canard . . .” Dmitry was
gullible, Rogers said, for believing in data provided by the Russian government
and the World Bank, among other things. “If you really believe all this
codswallop, why are you in business school?” Rogers wrote. “Why aren’t you there
making your fortune?” He continued, “I was terribly embarrassed for you when you
stood there babbling on in front of the others about the strong ruble . . . ,
but now you have shouted your hopelessness from the rooftops for all to see.”
Rogers, not to be outshouted, copied Dmitry’s classmates on the response.
Round three, later that night. “I see that you prefer the language of personal
insults instead of informed polite discussion,” Dmitry, now a minor celebrity on
the south bank of the Charles, replied (again to all). This time, he affixed
evidence supplied by the U.S. government as well. “Let me know if you desire to
see my bank statements and resume. . . . I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised,
maybe even compare them to yours when you were my tender age, for a real
awakening.”
Within days, the complete works of Rogers-Alimov, running to a few thousand
words, had become one of those e-mails forwarded with great alacrity and mirth
among Wall Street firms, British parliamentary committees, and salesmen in
Korea. Typical reactions could be broken down into four categories: those from
people who have always suspected that business school is a sham (“Jim Rogers
kicking some B-school ass”); from the usual array of Harvard-haters; from
certain fellow M.B.A. aspirants (to Dmitry: “Keep up the good work, and don’t
let him get to you. You are representing us well”); and—case students, take
note—from employers who have been moved to offer Dmitry a job (“If you would
ever consider working for an investment bank . . . ”).
Round four has yet to be fought, although by late last week a side skirmish had
broken out—copied to everyone, of course—between Rogers and Boris Jurash, an
employee in the British Department of Constitutional Affairs (Boris: “I just
like winding up smug-heads like yourself.” Rogers: “It is clear English is not a
language in which you are proficient.” Boris: “Don’t be a twit, and stop
clogging the Net”). Rogers seems to have lost interest in debating Dmitry,
meanwhile, as he travels to promote his book. “I don’t know why I even bothered
to answer that guy in the first place,” he said, over the phone. “Whether oil
production is up five or six per cent is pretty meaningless in the context of
this discussion, which was, and is, that Russia’s a hopeless place to invest.”
“My take on this is that Rogers can’t respond based on facts, because he knows
his facts are wrong,” Dmitry said. “My best guess is he probably never had the
chance to go to business school, and he probably had this feeling of being a
little bit inadequate about that.”
“Inadequate,” in Rogers’s view, of course, is a term that might better be
applied to Dmitry. “All over the world people are saying, ‘What’s wrong with
this guy?’” Rogers said. “From the responses I’ve got, this makes him look like
a fool.”
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